The State of New Construction in the North Dallas Suburbs – Fall 2025

The 2025 North Dallas New Home Market: A Reset, Not a Retreat

If you’ve driven through Celina, Prosper, or Frisco lately, you’ve seen plenty of dirt moving—but fewer “Sold” signs than before. The cranes are still up, yet the pace of sales has slowed.

That’s because the Dallas–Fort Worth new construction market is adjusting after years of record growth. Builders, buyers, and the local economy are all adapting to a new, more balanced market.

So, what’s really happening right now in the North Dallas suburbs? Let’s break it down.

 The Market Has Cooled—But Buyers Have Leverage

According to Residential Strategies Inc., builder traffic and sales dropped 20–30% from spring highs as of Q2 2025.

The key factors:

• Mortgage rates near 7% have cooled buyer urgency despite rate buydowns.

• Job growth has slowed to roughly 1% year-over-year, or about 43,000 new jobs, well below DFW’s usual pace.

• The relocation pipeline from other states has shrunk, as homeowners hesitate to swap low 3% loans for higher ones.

The result? Finished new-home inventory is up 35% year-over-year, giving buyers more options and bargaining power.

For those ready to buy, that means incentives—price drops, closing-cost credits, and rate buydowns—are stronger than they’ve been in years.

 Prosper, Celina, and Frisco Still Lead the Way

Even with the slowdown, North Dallas remains DFW’s hub for new construction:

• Celina ISD starts are up more than 75% year-over-year, leading the metro.

• Prosper ISD is maturing, with around 1,600 new homes started as it nears build-out.

• Princeton, McKinney, and the US-380 corridor continue to attract buyers with newer communities and better value.

• The median new home price across DFW has slipped to about $405,000, roughly 3.5% lower than last year—a healthy correction, not a crash.

 Why This Market Favors Smart Buyers

While headlines talk about a “slowdown,” experienced agents see opportunity.

Builders are motivated, and buyers who act now can secure:

• Below-market mortgage rates (many builders are buying down to the low-5s)

• Design upgrades or closing credits not offered in 2022’s frenzied market

• Quick-move-in inventory, avoiding long construction timelines

Meanwhile, resale homes remain pricey—families now need to earn roughly $153K to afford the median-priced DFW home. That makes new builds with rate incentives an appealing alternative.

 Why You Still Need a Realtor for New Construction

Even when buying directly from a builder, having your own representation costs you nothing—the builder covers the commission.

A seasoned Realtor helps you:

• Compare builders, floor plans, and hidden incentives

• Negotiate upgrades and pricing with insider context

• Review builder contracts that are written to favor the seller

• Coordinate inspections to protect your investment

Simply put, a good agent keeps the process smooth and ensures you get the best value possible.

 The Outlook: Stability with Selective Growth

Analysts expect DFW new-home starts to ease to about 42,000–40,000 annually through 2026—still among the top ten markets in the nation.

The strongest submarkets—Prosper, Celina, and McKinney—will continue to draw steady demand thanks to schools, amenities, and convenient commutes. As rates trend lower into 2026, pent-up demand should quickly return.

 Thinking About a New Build?

This fall could be your best chance to secure a new home in North Dallas before demand picks back up.

If you’d like a list of new construction homes in Prosper, Celina, and Frisco, or details on current builder incentives, I’m happy to help you navigate the options.

 Matt Braun, Realtor® | Merit Homes
North Dallas New Construction Specialist